In recent years, and especially in recent months, geopolitics has again been a decisive influence on global dynamics, having a significant impact on the strategies and stability of enterprises. In the current context, the growing fragmentation of the international order, fuelled by conflicts and tensions on the management of energy resources, has created an operating scenario characterized by uncertainty and volatility. No less important is also to remember that some companies are still facing the difficulties due to the effects of the pandemic of Covid-19. Although the health emergency has fortunately come to an end, the repercussions caused by the pandemic are still an extremely topical issue, and this must be added to the increase in costs and economic uncertainty caused by global tensions.
The Middle East case has led Europe to engage in tackling complex crises, including recent developments in Iran. We are now called upon to intervene on several fronts, from the evacuation of citizens to the delivery of humanitarian aid, to diplomatic engagement, to ease tensions and prevent further conflicts. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the President of the European Council António Costa, as well as the High Representative/Vice-President Kaja Kallas, have reiterated the EU's commitment to regional stability.
The EU has prepared two naval operations to secure the maritime routes of the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. However, Europe remains exposed to volatility at global level. For this reason, the European Commission proposes temporary measures aimed at providing immediate relief while at the same time calling for structural reforms in the essential components of the electricity price-setting system. The proposed measures include the extension of state aid, greater efficiency of the network, a reduction in electricity taxes compared to fossil fuels and the modernisation of the emissions trading system (ETS). The consequences of the tensions in the Middle East are a paradigmatic example: in recent months, the increase of the energetic raw materials, like the oil grown until +44% and the European gas until +63%, has determined a meaningful increment of the operating costs for the enterprises. In this context also numerous logistic tensions are inserted, like the increase of the costs of marine transport and the lengthening of the times of supplying.
In this scenario, administrative bodies are called upon to strengthen risk management systems, integrating predictive analysis tools and alternative scenarios. Economic forecasts assume reduced growth, zero or, in the most severe cases, even negative. This implies a revision of business strategies, more resilient, the adoption of financial policies that are certainly more prudent and the renegotiation of some contracts.
It seems necessary to also highlight the various issues concerning the responsibility of the directors. They are obliged to fulfil their trust duties according to standards of diligence and correctness, which clearly include the assessment of risks that are likely to significantly affect business continuity. And it is therefore clear that the inability to predict or manage risks adequately can constitute a violation of certain obligations, especially in the case that the information available makes certain dynamics reasonably predictable. The correct analysis and forecast of risk is therefore an essential element for the survival of the enterprise, but this becomes extremely complex in a scenario characterized by increasingly unstable geopolitical dynamics. At the same time, the importance of market disclosure emerges: listed companies, in particular, must ensure transparent and timely information about the impact of geopolitical crises on their economic and financial situation. By increasing uncertainty, and therefore the need to inform the market more clearly and timely, companies are more frequently exposed to risks, cost increases, supply problems and detailed future prospects.
The growing interlinkage between corporate law and global macroeconomic dynamics is becoming increasingly evident. The role of corporate governance is central to systematic risk management and requires corporate bodies to adopt appropriate strategies to address scenarios characterised by uncertainty and instability in markets. Geopolitical crises are, in this sense, an exogenous factor capable of significantly influencing production costs, supply chains and business growth prospects.
The value of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is certainly one of the most critical and talked about globally, as it represents one of the main choicespoint at the world level. It is an area through which significant shares of oil and liquefied natural gas pass through, making it of crucial importance for global energy security.
To date, the continuous tensions between Iran, the United States and other regional actors expose this strait to risks of blockage and serious limitations of the marine traffic. From the beginning of the war with Israel and the United States, Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as an instrument of force. From March 4 this strategic marine joint has seen collapse of 90% the transit of ships.
The uncertainty about its full operation is a major source of instability, with repercussions on energy prices, supply chains and stability of financial markets. For companies, these dynamics result in increased operating costs, logistical difficulties and greater complexity in strategic planning.
The kerosene crisis
One of the most important consequences concerns the kerosene crisis and the consequent fuel shortage. There is a real appeal from several airports in the European Community countries to request temporary measures to address potential fuel shortages and the increase in costs. The A4E association, representing companies such as Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and IAG (British Airways and Iberia, in addition to low cost easyJet and Ryanair), also asked the EU to allow the import and use of Jet A fuel, mainly used in the United States, but not allowed in Europe for its greater environmental impact. Airlines also require direct action on jet fuel, considering that there are currently no obligations or guarantees of availability of fuel for aircraft, nor collective purchasing mechanisms at European level.
The strong pressure on this market has resulted in a reduction of around 2 million global seats between mid-April and the end of April. The companies involved include major international and Gulf operators such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, as well as global carriers such as British Airways, United Airlines, Air China, ANA, Lufthansa, Turkish Airlines and Delta Air Lines. Several companies are also canceling flights or replacing aircraft with smaller and more fuel efficient models.
The lack of fuel is generally equated with a case of force majeure and therefore does not give entitlement to compensation for the damage, but exclusively to reimbursement of the ticket. This qualification derives from the exceptional and unpredictable nature of the event, independent of the airline's will, similar to extraordinary natural events. However, there are cases where the passenger may also be compensated, for example in the event of failure to notify or if the lack of fuel is attributable to inefficient management by the company.
The current picture therefore appears characterized by high uncertainty: if Europe were to face an increase in cancellations during the summer season, it is foreseeable a significant increase in litigation between carriers and passengers. Large companies are therefore trying to reduce short-range connections, eliminating the less profitable routes due to the increase of fuel costs. The first cuts are already operational, but it remains to understand if these measures will be sufficient to overcome the crisis or if it will be necessary to adopt more incisive interventions. It follows the need for companies to adopt governance models more and more oriented to proactive risk management, in a perspective of resilience and adaptation to global scenarios in continuous evolution.
The crisis that has invested the enterprises and the economy in Italy
The war in the Middle East, and above all the uncertainty about how much could be prolonged, is increasingly worrying the world of companies. Confartigianato speaks of "uncertainty" that puts under pressure the economic recovery" going to hit particularly the export. The CGia of Mestre calculates that the attack of Israel and the United States to Iran risks, for the impact on the energy bills, to cost to the Italian enterprises almost 10 billion more in 2026: 7.2 billion of increases on electricity and 2.6 billion on gas, 13.5% more on last year.
The sectors that would suffer most are metallurgy, trade, food, hotels, transport and logistics and chemistry for electricity, but also the extraction, food processing, textiles and shipbuilding for gas. The analysis of Confartigianato looks instead at what the exports of the products made in Italy are worth going out to the Middle East countries: 27.8 billion euros of Italian manufacturing exports, about 4.6% of its total value.
In March 2026, with an increase of 41.6% over the previous month, international prices for energy commodities recorded the second highest monthly increase of the last fifty years. Tensions immediately reflected on energy costs: in March 2026 the gas price increased by 48.5% compared to February, while the wholesale price of electricity grew by 25.3%. On the fuel front, in Italy the price of diesel exceeded the February average by 16.9%.
Another critical issue concerns security of supply. The war has caused damage to energy infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran, requiring long time for restoration. In 2025 Italy imports €7.7 billion of energy goods from the Gulf countries, equal to 13.6% of total oil and natural gas imports. Qatar is the second supplier country of LNG Italy behind the United States, resulting in 11.1% of Italian gas imports. A recent study published by the Monetary Fund shows that Italy and the United Kingdom are particularly exposed to the crisis due to their dependence on gas power produced by gas plants. The fuel rations for these days weigh a high dependence on the Gulf area: the imports of jet fuel from the European Union from Gulf countries amount to 6.7 billion euros, over a third (35.0%) of the total import.
Another factor to be taken into account in the analysis of the economic impact that the war has determined for the companies of our country concerns the field of Made in Italy. In fact, the conflict in progress puts at risk the sales of Made in Italy in the area. L'Italia is the second exporter of the European Union in the countries of the Middle East, with sales of 28.3 billion euros, behind Germany with 36.2 billion and in front of France with 22.1 billion and the Netherlands with 19.5 billion. In 2025 the Middle East market grew by 7.2% compared to +3.3% of the total export. Exports in the area have a strong concentration in primary manufacturing districts of mechanics, fashion and jewelry: the first ten provinces for exports to the Middle East are Milan, Florence, Arezzo, Bergamo, Vicenza, Rome, Varese, Bologna, Turin and Modena.
Described the main sectors affected by the crisis, it is now possible to analyse the possible solutions that a company can put in place in a crisis context.
A company affected by the crisis caused by the current conflict in the Middle East can adopt several strategies to exit the critical phase or, at least, to mitigate the negative effects. Firstly, it is essential to intervene on the management of costs: reducing non-essential expenses, renegotiating contracts with suppliers and trading partners and optimizing production processes allows to preserve liquidity, which is a vital element in times of difficulty. In fact, careful management of cash flow allows the company to continue to operate even under conditions of strong uncertainty. In parallel, the company should aim at diversification, both as regards the supply markets and the sales markets. Reducing dependence on unstable geographical areas or few suppliers can significantly reduce the risks of supply disruptions or sudden cost increases. In this sense, exploring new markets and strengthening the presence in more stable environments can represent a valuable opportunity to relaunch.
Another key aspect is the strengthening of the resilience of the supply chain. The company can, for example, create strategic stocks of raw materials, develop relationships with alternative suppliers and improve logistics planning. This approach allows to better address any bottlenecks or delays in transport, which are often direct consequences of international conflicts. Innovation is also an important strategic lever. Investing in digital technologies, automation and new business models can increase the efficiency and adaptability of the enterprise. For example, the digitisation of processes or the development of e-commerce can open new sales channels and reduce operating costs.
From a financial point of view, support instruments such as soft loans, public incentives or debt renegotiating with credit institutions are available. Many governments and institutions provide extraordinary measures to support companies in difficulty. Accessing these resources can provide concrete support in the short term.
Finally, it is essential to adopt a flexible and future-oriented strategic planning. The company should constantly monitor the evolution of the geopolitical and economic context, developing different possible scenarios and preparing appropriate response plans. Transparent communication with employees, customers and stakeholders also helps to maintain confidence and internal stability. In this way, even in a complex and uncertain context, the company can not only limit damage, but also identify new opportunities for growth and development in the medium to long term.
Role of directors
In the enterprise, directors are the active players who in such a context have the most timely opportunity to intervene. They play a central role in the management and overcoming of a crisis of enterprise, especially when it is determined by serious exogenous factors such as armed conflicts or wars, which have a profound impact on the economy and markets. In such contexts, their function is not limited to ordinary management, but requires extraordinary capacities for analysis, prompt decision-making and strategic responsibility.
First, administrators must constantly monitor the evolution of the macroeconomic and geopolitical scenario, assessing the direct and indirect impact on business continuity, which implies the adoption of more stringent financial control and planning systems, in order to identify early signs of asset imbalance or liquidity crisis.
Another key task is the preparation and implementation of crisis management plans, which may include asset reorganisation, cost reduction, diversification, and the use of extraordinary finance instruments. In this sense, administrators must demonstrate flexibility and adaptability by reviewing business models and operational strategies in the light of changed conditions. Legally, they are obliged to act in compliance with the duties of diligence, fairness and transparency, protecting the interests of society and creditors. In the event of a crisis, they must act without delay to adopt the instruments provided for in the regulation (such as restructuring procedures or negotiated composition), avoiding the worsening of the disruption.
Finally, the communicative role is crucial: administrators must maintain a clear and continuous dialogue with internal and external stakeholders, including employees, suppliers, financial institutions and investors, in order to preserve trust and facilitate the overcoming of the crisis.
Risk coverage
Business crisis risk management is one of the main challenges for modern organisations, especially in a global context characterised by high geopolitical instability. Events such as wars and armed conflicts can generate sudden and deep shocks on the markets, interrupt supply chains, increase raw material costs and reduce demand. For this reason, companies must adopt a preventive approach, equipped with tools and techniques to strengthen their resilience and reduce vulnerability to such events.
A first key element is strategic planning and integrated risk management (IRM). Through this approach, the enterprise is able to identify, evaluate and monitor potential risks, including geopolitical risks. Scenario analysis and stress testing allow to simulate the effects of extreme events, such as international conflict, and to prepare adequate responses. In this way, the enterprise can anticipate possible criticalities and develop effective contingency plans.
Another crucial tool is diversification, both in terms of markets and sources of supply. Companies that are overdependent on a single country or a specific geographical area are particularly exposed to the risks of war or political tensions. As we have seen, diversifying suppliers and expanding the outlet markets reduce the risk of sudden interruptions and maintain greater operational stability. In parallel, it is appropriate to develop strong relationships with alternative partners, so that we can quickly activate alternative solutions in case of need.
Financial soundness is a further pillar in crisis prevention. Businesses should maintain adequate levels of liquidity and access to credit, building financial reserves that can be used in emergency situations. Instruments such as standby credit lines, commercial risk insurance and hedge cover against price fluctuations (hedging) can help mitigate the economic impact of war events. Moreover, a balanced financial structure, with an adequate debt-own-capital ratio, increases the ability of the company to withstand sudden shocks. On an organisational level, it is essential to have internal control systems and early warning systems. These tools allow to detect timely signs of deterioration of the economic and financial situation, allowing administrators to intervene before the crisis becomes irreversible. In this context, the Italian legislation on the crisis of enterprise underlines the importance of organisational, administrative and accounting structures adapted to the nature and size of the enterprise. An important role is also played by digitalization and technological innovation. The adoption of advanced information systems allows greater visibility on business processes and supply chain, facilitating the management of interruptions and reorganization of activities. Technologies such as artificial intelligence and data analysis can support risk forecasting and improve decision-making capacity.
In addition, companies can protect themselves by concluding flexible contracts and safeguard clauses, such as force majeure or hardship clauses, which allow them to renegotiate contractual conditions in the presence of extraordinary events. These legal instruments are particularly useful in war contexts, where operating conditions can change drastically in a short time.
Future prospects
The future prospects of the Middle East conflict remain highly uncertain and depend on a combination of political, military and economic factors. On the one hand, there is a real risk of regional escalation, with the direct or indirect involvement of other state actors and armed groups. This scenario could aggravate the instability of the area, making it more difficult to negotiate diplomatically. On the other hand, the pressure of the international community and global economic interests could favour attempts to de-escalation and temporary agreements, although often fragile.
From an economic point of view, the consequences for businesses are already evident and could be intensified. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty tends to reduce investment and to make financial markets more unstable. Exporting companies may experience a decrease in demand or difficulties in supply chains. At the same time, some companies may find opportunities, for example in the field of defence, security or alternative energies, driven by the need to reduce dependence on unstable areas.
Conclusion
At national level, many governments enter this crisis with high levels of debt and very limited fiscal margins. The crisis also occurs at a time when public development assistance is under pressure and the global trading environment has become more uncertain and fragmented. This makes it more difficult for governments to provide social protection and economic support that families need, increasing the risk that the crisis will cause wider and longer-term damage. Although the room for manoeuvre is limited in many countries, there are still measures that can help reduce pressure on workers and businesses. These include temporary income support for affected families, wage support measures and employment wherever possible, the protection of basic social protection systems and practical assistance to small businesses facing sudden interruptions. Early attention to these risks is essential, because once jobs, incomes and productive capacity are lost, recovery becomes more difficult and uneven. This is not only an economic issue, but also a social and political one. When war destroys jobs, incomes and sustainable businesses, it also weakens the sense of security that work can offer. And where decent work is scarce, social tensions can increase, making it harder to restore confidence, stability and ultimately peace.
For this reason, a waiting approach would be risky. When data become sufficiently clear to eliminate any doubt, temporary shocks may have already turned into lasting problems. What could be useful is a careful observation of the evolution of these risks and a timely action to protect jobs, incomes and working conditions before the damage becomes more and more difficult to remove. The more lasting effects of this crisis may not only manifest itself in destroyed infrastructure or lost production, but in labour markets that emerge weaker, more unequal and insecure long after media attention has shifted to other issues.